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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce almost five times more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new analysis.

Growing Gap Between Lab and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit only one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a advocacy organization. That differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Researchers studied information from in-vehicle energy use meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official estimates, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while official emissions are falling,” said a lead analyst participating in the study. “That gap is growing and creates a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol vehicles.”

Key Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts linked most of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric power compared to overall mileage. The team found that just 27% of driving was done in EV mode, while official assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when running in EV mode, pollution amounts were well above official projections. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function alone, resulting to engines using gasoline for almost one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

According to calculations, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four large carmaker groups to escape over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could spend about €500 more per year in running costs than would be estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the mark,” commented a automotive expert. “Consumers are being misled into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly improved than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Political Discussion and Industry Pressure

Hybrid cars have lately been brought back into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and opposition from EU countries with significant car industries.

Some high-level officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” solution to introduce in the legislation.

An external energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the research, called the analysis a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the car sector argued there was too little data to accurately assess real-world emissions.

“The results show, without question, that the gap in official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for petrol or conventional vehicles,” the expert stated. “Any policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and in the light of this evidence.”