A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
